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Goin’ Against the Flow


Contrarian [courtesy Google Images]

Contrarian
[courtesy Google Images]

This article expresses some of my notions on investing–especially in relation to the “buy low, sell high” mantra.

 

MarketWatch.com reported in “Opinion: Almost no one believes the stock market will fall” that,

 

Everyone believes the U.S. stock market has reached a permanently high plateau. . . . A recent Investors Intelligence survey showed bearish sentiment is at its lowest since 1987 (13.3%). . . . short-sellers have nearly disappeared along with the few remaining bears. . . . the VIX (“fear index”) is at historic lows (near 12), which reflects investor complacency.

“Put another way, almost no one believes this market will go down.”

 

As I’ve repeatedly observed, the fundamental strategy for profiting from any investment is “buy low and sell high”. You buy an investment for $100 (when its price is low); you later sell it for $200 (when its price is high); you make a $100 profit.

Conversely, if you buy an investment for $100 (when you mistakenly believe its price is low) and later sell it for $50 (when the price is even lower), you’ll lose $50.

The theory behind the “buy low and sell high” investment strategy is obvious and simple.

In practice, however, “buy low and sell high” is complicated and hard to apply because it compels investors to:

 

1) it diligently and independently research the current and historical price of whatever stock they’re attracted to; and

2) act contrary to the “conventional wisdom” of mass of investors precisely whenever that “wisdom” seems strongest.

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Posted by on September 30, 2014 in Economy, Investment, stocks, Values

 

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Confidence vs Humility


[courtesy Google Images]

[courtesy Google Images]

I view the video below as evidence of a powerful and often self-destructive instinct in most people to follow anyone who speaks with great confidence.  People don’t much care about what’s being said.  They do care about the apparent confidence of the speaker.  Most people don’t care if the speaker speaks truth or lies, but they do care if he speaks with confidence.

If you speak without confidence–even if you’re telling a profound truth–most people won’t believe you.  Most people won’t follow you.

But if you speak with great confidence, people don’t care if you’re a pathological liar–they will follow you, they’ll obey you, they’ll give you lots of money.  Most salesmen, leaders, politicians, bankers and “men of power” understand this principle.  If you would win, if you would rule, you must speak with unbridled confidence.  Obama is a classic example of this phenomenon.

Adolph Hitler also understood this principle and called it the “big lie”.  If you told a lie big enough, no one would doubt it. Perhaps Hitler could’ve labeled the phenomenon the “confident lie”.  I.e., if you tell a lie with sufficient confidence, very few will doubt it.

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Posted by on September 29, 2014 in Belief, Bible, confidence, Good & Evil, Lies, Values, Video

 

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Out of the Mouths of Babes


Three, sixteen-year old American girls have won Google’s “global science competition” prize.  These three girls leaned that many crops germinate in direct proportion to the presence of a particular bacteria in the soil.  Thus, they hypothesized that by increasing the amount of that bacteria in the soil, crops might germinate more quickly and produce greater yields.  They tested their hypothesis over a period of eleven months and discovered that by increasing the concentration of bacteria in the soil, some crop yields might be increased by up to 50%.

This is no small thing.  Increasing crop yields by 3% is interesting and profitable.  Increasing crop yields by 50% can save lives.  This increase might help feed millions of hungry people.  These three teenage girls have achieved a ground-breaking scientific discovery in their kitchens and backyards that’s eluded college-educated scientists working in the multi-million-dollar laboratories of major corporations.  Children with little more than laptops, test tubes, seeds, patience and an understanding of the scientific method may have changed the world.

Google gave the girls $50,000 college scholarships, a trip to the Galapagos Islands and and an opportunity to participate in a summer program for possible astronauts.

Here’s a video of these three teenagers (sometimes wearing ill-fitting laboratory smocks like little girls dressed up in their mom’s dresses and high heels) which explains how they achieved their extraordinary discovery.

I’m blown away.

I don’t know if the world’s major corporations are impressed or terrified.  It’s not news, but it’s more evidence that the world of scientific discovery is no longer confined to big money and big corporations.  Even kids can change the world.  This capacity for individuals defies the ideas of “central planning” and “central control” that underlie the New World Order and global government.

video    00:04:46

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10 Comments

Posted by on September 27, 2014 in GMO, Science, Technology, Video

 

A Visit to Newtown


Adam Lanza--alleged shooter in the Sandy Hook Elementary School murders [courtesy Google Images]

Adam Lanza–alleged shooter in the Sandy Hook Elementary School murders
[courtesy Google Images]

On December 12th, A.D. 2012, Americans were shocked by mainstream media reports that 20-year-old Adam Lanza fatally shot 20 children and 6 adult staff members at the Sandy Hook Elementary School located at Newtown, Connecticut.

The Obama administration instantly seized on the tragedy as a opportunity to pass more gun control laws.  Ironically, faced with Obama’s threat to restrict or outlaw the sale of some firearms, Americans rushed out to stores to buy more millions of firearms.

Since the Sandy Hook shootings, a couple of individuals have visited the Newtown police and fire departments in search of answers to some perplexing questions.  They claim to have been stonewalled by Newtown’s police and fire departments and even the school board.  The primary individual asking these questions also claims that officers of a sheriff’s department in Florida visited him at his home in Florida to tell him to stop asking questions about Sandy Hook killings.  If his story is true, The Powers That Be don’t want his story to be told.

I wasn’t in or near Sandy Hook when the shootings allegedly took place, so I don’t know what the truth is about that alleged tragedy.  I do know that the following video appears to be fantastic since it implies that the entire community of Newtown must know the Sandy Hook murders didn’t really take place.  A conspiracy theory of that size, with that many participants, is extremely hard to believe.

On the other hand, I also know that the following video appears credible.  If it is credible, the entire Sandy Hook tragedy may have been fabricated–probably for the purpose of creating an incident that could be used as pretext to implement more gun control laws.

video     00:09:43

 

P.S.  Yesterday (September 26th), I posted the previous video.  A few hours later, the video was removed from YouTube.  I don’t suppose that the video was removed because I posted a link to it.  The timing was almost certainly just coincidental.

Still, it’s annoying to lose that video because it offered some very strange insights.

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Tuesday Night Radio: Definitions; “Facially Unconstitutional” vs “Unconstitutional as Applied”; No “Animals” in the KJV


American Independence Hour hosted by Alfred Adask; 8:00 PM to 10:00 PM Central time, Tuesday nights, on AmericanVoiceRadio.com and also on the KU band, free-to-air satellite link at Galaxy 19.  There’ll be call-ins at 1-800-596-8191.

 
5 Comments

Posted by on September 23, 2014 in American Independence Hour, Radio

 

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The Ultimate Prize: Control of Petroleum—or Control of Petro-Currency?


[courtesy Google Images]

[courtesy Google Images]

“. . . they have seduced my people, saying, Peace; and there was no peace . . . .” Ezekiel 13:10)

 

The Muslim faith is divided into two primary sects: Sunni and Shiite. They’ve been at each other’s throat since the death of the prophet Mohammed in the 7th century. Their disagreement is religious and goes to which sect acquired legitimate authority over the entire Muslim faith after Mohammed died. The two sects can go through generations of peaceful coexistence. But every so often, they wage holy war against each other.

ZeroHedge.com recently commented on rising Middle East tensions:

 

“What’s changed [in the Middle East] is the perception that the USA has any role to play any longer even in the diplomatic theatrics. The Middle East is disintegrating faster than any polity in historical memory. It appears that, if anything, the USA has only succeeded in accelerating the process wherever we turn our attentions.”

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Fact or Fantasy?


[courtesy Google Images]

[courtesy Google Images]

Yahoo! Finance reported in “The $1 trillion reason why Bernanke’s critics were wrong,” that:

 

“Last week, NYT columnist Paul Krugman penned an ode to his former Princeton colleague. ‘And there but for the grace of Bernanke go we,’ Krugman wrote, reflecting on Europe’s economic morass.

“On Monday, Bloomberg wrote that Bernanke’s critics missed out on $1 trillion in potential gains in Treasuries since 2008. ‘The resilience of Treasuries represents a rebuke to the chorus of skeptics . . . who predicted the Fed’s unprecedented stimulus would lead to runaway inflation and spell doom for the bond market’.”

 

But how “resilient” are US Treasuries if nearly 90% of those sold since A.D. 2012 have been purchased at full face value by the Federal Reserve?

What would the price of US Treasuries be if those Treasuries were only sold on the free market and not on a market dominated and manipulated by the Fed?

The reason the Fed bought those bonds is because the free market would only agree to pay a fraction of the bonds’ face value. Rather than let the free market “discover” the true value of US bonds, the Fed intervened to overpay and thereby support the illusion of US Treasury value.

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