A headline in Thursday’s New York Times reported, “U.S. Economy Began to Grow Again in 3rd Quarter–The United States has emerged from the longest economic contraction since World War II.”
Ohh, so it’s “emerged, has it? Well, isn’t that just great? I guess “Happy Days” are here again.
According to the NY Times:
“. . . the nation’s gross domestic product expanded at an annual rate of 3.5 percent in the quarter that ended in September, matching its average growth rate of the last 80 years.”
“The price index for gross domestic purchases, a measure of prices that United States residents pay for goods and services, increased at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the third quarter, compared with a small increase in the second.”
Given that depressions are always accompanied by falling prices (deflation), rising prices (inflation) are a very good sign.
“Wall Street welcomed the news of renewed economic growth, with major stock indexes ending the day about 2 percent higher. The Dow Jones industrial average soared 200 points, to close at 9,962.58.”
“Businesses are drawing down their inventories more slowly, possibly because they anticipate more demand in the future, economists said. The businesses have largely sold out their current stock . . . this means they will increase orders in the coming months to replenish supplies.”
“The country’s overall exports grew at an annual rate of 14.7 percent, and imports at 16.4 percent, in the latest quarter. While these numbers mean the United States’ trade gap has widened, they also provide hope that the global economy may finally be recovering from a collapse in activity earlier this year.”
That’s a lot of good news . . . but there are a couple of flies in that last bit of ointment:
First, exports are growing primarily because the value of the dollar is shrinking.
Second, why would any American “hope” that the global economy may be recovering? The global economy is killing the US economy and US standard of living. There is no way that Americans can both maintain their former standard of living and compete head-on with the workers in China. If we’re going to surrender to globalism, it necessary follows that average wages for Chinese workers must rise toward some global “average wage” while average wages for American workers must correspondingly fall. There is no other possible outcome. The American standard of living and the American dream (that each generation would enjoy a higher standard of living than the previous generation) are being sacrificed by our own government in the name of advancing global free trade and the New World Order.
That’s not a misunderstanding by our gov-co. It’s treason.
So why should ordinary Americans “hope” that the global economy is reviving? That revival is contrary to our interests.
In fact, the New York Times article also warns that despite the 3rd quarter’s happy news, Happy Days may not yet have arrived:
“But government programs to encourage consumer spending on things like cars and houses are expiring, and employers remain reluctant to hire more workers, suggesting the [3rd quarter] recovery may not last . . . . For most people, the recovery will not feel real until jobs are more plentiful and the housing market improves. [But] Jobs may still be hard to find well into 2010.”
So, if unemployment is still rising, how do we explain the happy news of the 3rd quarter’s “end of the recession”? Here’s how:
“The government’s cash-for-clunkers program spurred consumers to spend more on durable goods, orders of which grew at an annual rate of 22.3 percent in the third quarter after a decline in the previous quarter. Similarly, the $8,000 federal tax credit for first-time home buyers helped revive housing sales, which rose at an annual rate of 23.4 percent in the third quarter. . . . The $787 billion stimulus package, which was passed last winter and is still being distributed, is also credited with strengthening economic activity . . . .”
Thus, our 3rd quarter “end of the recession” is not really due to a “natural” strengthening of the economy, but rather to the artificial stimulation of government intervention. How long can that intervention last? According to the NY Times:
“Many economists worry that the effects of these government initiatives will be short-lived and that the next few quarters may show sluggish growth or even a second dip. . . . Withering consumer confidence and concerns about a weak recovery have left companies wary of hiring more employees. The jobless rate reached 9.8 percent in September, its highest in 26 years. . . . Concerns about rising unemployment may pressure the administration to look for additional ways to stimulate the economy.”
“Additional ways to stimulate the economy”? Hey—I’ve got some great ideas! How ‘bout gov-co passes a law to mandate “super-sizing” your lunch order with free coke and fries! Then people will eat more and thereby stimulate the economy! Or . . . or . . . maybe we could pass a law that requires the homeless to buy homes! That would cure the housing crisis. And . . . and . . . we could require the people on extended unemployment benefits up in Detroit to buy more American made cars—that could revive the American auto industry.
See, there’s nothing a little “creative legislation” can’t do to “officially end” the recession/depression. Heck, we could even pass a law to criminalize recessions. Then, anyone who stopped working, selling, making or buying could be jailed as a “recessionist” (worse than a “terrorist”?). That would sure stop our economic woes, right . . . ?
In fact, the NYTimes reports that gov-co has a number of proposals to help end the recession including “another extension in unemployment benefits and various job creation programs.”
Of course, people without jobs will welcome an extension in their unemployment benefits. But how long can we extend “unemployment benefits” before those benefits and unemployment become permanent? At what point do we admit that “extended unemployment benefits” are really just welfare? Are “extended unemployment benefits” helping to create more jobs or helping to create a permanent underclass of unemployed welfare recipients?
If we really want to create jobs, how ‘bout we RAISE TARIFFS to protect existing jobs and force manufacturers to relocate factories in China, India and Mexico back into the USA?
The simple truth is that government can’t “create jobs” for Americans and still support global free trade and the New World Order. So long as we have low tariffs and free trade, American unemployment will continue to rise and American wages will continue to fall as jobs are shipped overseas to third world countries. So long as unemployment rises and wages fall, the US economy will continue to sag. If we are going to revive the US economy, we must provide more American jobs. But we don’t need more government “jobs” which produce nothing but consumers and are largely a glorified form of welfare. We need real jobs that result in a real productive contribution to society. To create more American productive jobs, we must raise tariffs and abandon globalism.
So long as our gov-co is determined to foster globalism, no matter what gov-co tells you, Happy Days are definitely not yet here again.
OK—just because things things aren’t so great, that doesn’t prove things are bad, right?
Maybe; maybe not.
Consider the World Net Daily (WND) headline of October 29th: “Stock analysts issue ‘Black Tuesday’ warning—Trends on anniversary of 1929 collapse indicate markets on verge of ‘crash‘.”
According to WND:
“On this 80th anniversary of the 1929 “Black Tuesday” stock market collapse, some analysts are . . . warning a major crash in the stock market is imminent. Graham Summers, senior market strategist at OmniSans Research, wrote ‘Well, judging from the market’s action today, I believe we may be within 48 hours of getting the ‘Official Sell’ signal I’ve been waiting for.’ . . . Summers explained that he has been watching an ominous pattern develop in which the trading range shrinks as stocks rise higher. In the past, that pattern has led to a sharp downturn. ‘The issue now is whether this rally gives up this week, rolls over and breaks below the trend line or if there will be some greater push to the upside.’”
Judging from the WND article, a stock market crash could take place at almost any moment.
Trader Tracks reports “crash forecast reports are flying in from analysts. We see this stuff all the time, but the recent number of them with more strident and panicky tones does not bode well for these markets. . . . . It’s only a matter of time.”
So where are we? Did the 3rd quarter jump in economic activity indicate that Happy Days are here again? Or are market indicators accurately warning that a stock market crash is imminent? And if that market crash does take place, will it cause a further decline in consumer confidence? Would such a decline push the economy deeper into depression?
No one knows. Not for sure.
But while another dose of “Happy Days” may be possible, anyone can see that it’s not yet likely. On the other hand, while some further stock market decline may be likely, an economic depression is not absolutely inevitable.
So what do you do?
Hope for the best; prepare for the worst.
If Happy Days return, you might not need survival supplies. But if there were a real crash, you could suffer or even die without them: food, water, guns, and gold. Get ‘em while you can.
In the end, so long as our gov-co globalists keeps tariffs low and support the New World Order, American employment must fall, average American wages must fall and the American economy must continue to decline.
As Trader Tracks pointed out, it really is “only a matter of time”. How much time? No one knows. Maybe very little. Maybe quite a lot.
I believe you’d do well to assume that “very little” time remains to prepare. Better safe than sorry, hmm?
I still believe you’d do well to buckle up.
Until next time, I remain at arm’s length and within The United States of America,
Alfred Adask
