The following email describes warnings from an unnamed American minister in Israel. The email is alarming but unverifiable. It might be a hoax.
Even so, the email caused me to ask an intriguing question: What do you suppose Israel fears more–a nuclear-armed Iran–or a US president who is openly supportive of Muslims?
This question inspired a fascinating hypothesis. Could Israel bomb Iran, in part, for the purpose of causing Obama to lose this November’s election?
I’ll explain that hypothesis in a moment, but first, here’s the email, as written:
“Something is coming.
“I don’t know if you follow such things but…
“My brother and his family live in Jerusalem – he is a minister – and a former Navy SEAL – his office is close to one of Israel’s largest underground military bases.
“He called to tell me that he is sending his family back to the US immediately due to what he is seeing happen within the last week and what he is being told by his military contacts in both the Israel and US military.
“He said he is seeing with his own eyes military movements the likes of which he has never seen in his 20+ years in Israel.
“What he called a massive redeployment and protective tactics of forces is underway.
“Over the last two days he has seen anti-aircraft missile deployments throughout the Jerusalem area including 3 mobile units that he can see from his office windows.
“In addition, he has seen very large Israeli armored columns moving fast toward the Sinai where Egypt has now moved in Armor.
“There are reports of the top military leaders meeting with Israel’s senior Rabi which is something that has happened preceding every prior military campaign.
“His admonition is to watch carefully and pray for Israel and its people.
“He is convinced that barring something extraordinary Israel will attack Iran – with or without the US – and very soon.
“It is the belief in Israel that Obama does not stand with Israel but with the Arab countries.
“He has told me before that Israel will saber rattle from time to time but that this time is very different from what he is seeing and hearing.
“He was at the Wailing Wall 2 days ago and there were hundreds of IDF soldiers there. As he was leaving he passed at least 20 military buses full of soldiers in route to the wall.
“There are reports that Israel is asking Obama to come to Israel immediately but they are being answered with silence.
“My opinion is that I see the making of the perfect storm.”
It’s commonly believed that:
1. Israel and the Obama administration are not “BFF” (best friends forever). Obama does not support Israel to the same extent as previous administrations. Obama does show surprising support for Arab countries who may be Israel’s enemies.
2. Israel wants desperately to bomb Iran to prevent Iran from building nuclear weapons. President Obama has sought to restrain Israel from doing so for most of a year.
3. Obama was recently video-taped as telling a Russian official that after his reelection, he [Obama] would be “freed” to do whatever he liked without meaningful political repercussions. I.e., if reelected, Obama might shift gears from “change you can believe in” to “change you suckers can’t do nuthin’ to stop”.
4. It follows that if Obama is already mildly antagonistic to Israel, if he’s reelected, he might become aggressively antagonistic to Israel and aggressively supportive of Arab countries. ”Four More Years” of Obama might mark the “last four years” for Israel.
5. Mitt Romney, on the other hand, is expected to be a staunch supporter for Israel.
6. It follows that Israel has a powerful interest in seeing that Obama does not win reelection. At least some–and perhaps a vast majority–of Israeli politicians must believe that Israel’s very survival might be threatened if Obama is reelected.
7. Conjecture: Let’s suppose that Israel attacks Iran before the US presidential election. What are some of the possible political consequences?
A. An Israeli attack on Iran would demonstrate that Obama is not in control of Israel. A president not in control is a president less likely to win reelection
B. The Obama administration would be forced to choose to either support or abandon Israel.
If Obama provided military support for Israel’s attack on Iran:
i. He’d be dragged into another Middle East war which could cost him votes in Novermber’s election;
ii. He’d appear to be subservient to Israel and lose whatever goodwill he’s built up with Arab countries.
On the other hand, if Obama abandoned Israel and left Israel to fight Iran on its own, he would galvanize American Jews and the “religious right” to work against him in the November election.
8. Implications: It seems possible that an Israeli attack on Iran could be a no-win scenario for President Obama. Thus, if Israel defied President Obama’s determination to prevent an attack on Iran, Israel could cause Obama to either support Israel (and lose much Arab support) or abandon Israel—and lose much American support in the upcoming election.
Israel’s primary purpose for such an attack would be to destroy Iranian nuclear capability. But Israel’s secondary purpose could be to cause Obama to look weak, out of control, and incompetent–or at least cause Obama to break ranks with the Muslims.
If it’s true that Obama’s sympathies lie more with Muslims than Israel, then Israel has a powerful interest in preventing Obama’s reelection.
By bombing Iran, Israel might effectively “bomb” Obama’s chances for reelection.
In fact, it’s possible that those Israelis who would otherwise work against bombing Iran might still be persuaded to support such attack based on the possibility of simultaneously “bombing” Obama’s reelection prospects. By bombing Iran, Israel might kill two “birds” (adversaries; Iran and Obama) with one “stone” (an attack on Iran).
Israel might not be strong enough to destroy Iran’s nuclear capability, but they might still be strong enough to destroy Obama’s reelection.
• So, if Isreal attacks Iran, how might the Obama administration solve such a dilemma? Will Obama support Israel or the Muslims?
Obama will almost certainly do whatever was best for Obama’s reelection. Muslims will play no significant role in determining who wins this November’s election so there’s no point to Obama openly supporting the Muslims prior to the election.
On the the other hand, Jews and the religious right will play a significant role in determining whether Obama or Romney will win. Thus, Obama dare not antagonize Israel or the religious right until after the election. Obama may be effectively bound to support an Israeli attack on Iran–at least up until the election..
However, if Obama can sweet-talk Israel into postponing its attack plans for just two more months, and if Obama is reelected, he can then tell Israel to Go to Hell. But Obama dare not do so prior to the election.
Therefore, Israel has a 50-day “window of opportunity” to “force” Obama to openly support Israel and implicitly tell the Muslims to “Go to Hell”–if Israel would dare to initiate an attack on Iran.
Is Israel famous for its daring?
Of course, although there’s about 50 days until the election, there’d be no point in Israel attacking Iran on Friday, November 2nd. That would be too late to influence the US election or put Obama into a “box” where he must support Israel if he wants to be reelected.
Instead, if the hypothesis I’ve advanced actually makes any sense, we can expect an Israeli attack on Iran within the next two (maximum, three) weeks.
If Israel attacks Iran in the next two weeks, they could:
1. Badly disrupt or destroy the Iranian capacity to make nuclear weapons;
2. Badly disrupt the growing bond between the Obama administration and Muslim countries; and/or,
3. Possibly cause Obama to lose reelection.
Such a deal. . . .!