Barnhardt Capital Management Closes

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On November 17th, A.D. 2011, Ann Barnhardt–the president of Barnhardt Capital Management–wrote a letter announcing her decision to close her investment company and explained her reasons for doing so.

She’s closing in reaction to the recent collapse of MF Global–which she attributes to the criminal acts of  MFG president Jon Corzine and the increasingly corrupt nation of American markets.

As you may know, Jon Corzine is: a former governor of New Jersey–one of our nation’s most honest and ethical states; a former member of the U.S. Senate–one of nation’s most honest and ethical institutions; a former CEO of Goldman Sachs–another or our nation’s most honest and ethical institutions; and a member of the Democratic Party–one of the nation’s two most honest and ethical political parties.

Mr. Cozine’s seemingly honest and apparently trustworthy visage appears at right.  He’s even wearing an American flag lapel pin.   (As an aside, you should note that if and when the Antichrist comes, he will not appear as a scowling, antisocial version of Flash Gordon’s Emperor Ming.  Instead, the Antichrist will be highly popular, “likable as Hell,” and probably smiling almost incessantly.  The Antichrist will, in short, emulate Mr. Conzine’s affable appearance–at least, initially.)

Miss Barnhardt’s letter’s candor is astonishing.  If her reasons are correct, the recent collapse of MF Global in the commodities exchange will quite probably trigger an economic event similar to the global recession which followed the collapse of Lehman Brothers in A.D. 2008.

 

Hold Your Gold

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In July and August, we saw the price of gold soar from $1,500 to over $1,900 (Yay!).

In the month since September 5^th, we’ve seen the price of gold plummet from $1,900 to $1,640 (Booo!).

The $400 rise in the price of gold was exhilarating.

The $260 fall was scary.

But even scarier than a $260 fall in the price of gold is the fact that in the past month or so, we’ve also seen the prices of stocks, bonds and crude oil fall.  Conversely, we’ve watched the value of the fiat dollar (as measured on the US Dollar Index) rise.

Falling prices and corresponding increases in the purchasing power of a currency are evidence of deflation.  Persistent deflation is scary because it’s a hallmark of economic depression.

 

Speculation

I delight in speculation.

Speculation tests my powers of perception, and (hopefully) heightens those powers.

For me, speculation is a process akin to peering into the distance and trying to discern whether a cloud of dust on the horizon is being caused by a bunch of kids playing football, an oxcart or a tank.  It’s a process of “connecting dots” when most people don’t even see the dots.  Speculation is the process of trying to reach correct conclusions based on the least amount of evidence.

Speculation is risky since it’s a kind of intellectual or perceptual gambling.  That gambling excites me—especially when I publicly expose my speculations.  By publicly declaring my speculations, I stick my neck out and risk being ridiculed whenever my speculations turn out to be false. I enjoy the risk because that risk forces me to be much more astute in my speculations.

I don’t like being ridiculed any more than the next guy, so, I generally warn people “not to believe something because you hear it from me”.  I routinely sprinkle my texts and statements with words like “appears,” “what if,” or “hypothesis” to warn readers and listeners that the ideas I’m expressing are unproven, speculative and, while plausible, possibly mistaken.

I’ve been speculating in print or on radio for over 20 years.  If I say so myself, while some of my speculation has been mistaken, most of my speculation has turned out to be roughly correct.

This blog (adask.wordpress.com) is primarily dedicated to speculation.