Each day, I read the headlines in the mainstream news, I follow my email, and read as many articles as I have time. I’ve done so for several years, primarily as a prerequisite for hosting daily radio shows. Over those several years, I’ve developed an intuitive awareness of the “velocity” of news. That is, on average, there’s been about the same number of stories, the same “quantity” of news each week for several years.
But starting this last January, I’ve had the distinct impression that the “velocity of news” had accelerated by, say, at least 30%. I have no evidence to support that impression. It’s just a subjective feeling. But that feeling has been so persistent that I’m inclined to believe it’s real.
Based on that increasing “velocity of news,” I’ve come to suspect that “something big” is now very close–maybe just weeks or a couple of months away. Again, I have no evidence other than “gut”. I could easily be wrong.
We recently witnessed the 2-day plunge in the price of gold. That was pretty “big” but I don’t believe that’s the “something big” that I’ve been anticipating. Instead, I suspect that there’s more coming and possibly soon. But, again, I could be wrong.
Here’s a radio interview by Pastor Butch Paugh of a Lieutenant in one of the North Carolina police departments. This Lieutenant claims to have inside information that a nation-wide gun confiscation is planned to take place.
The interview was conducted on January 2nd. The Lieutenant hinted that he was not only a police officer but had spent some time in military intelligence, and that plans for the coming gun confiscation have been evolving since the mid-1980s. He stated that he believed that 75% of the police officers and about 45% of the sheriffs would stand with the people rather than the government. He didn’t know, but he stated in January that door-to-door gun confiscation would begin somewhere within 6 months (before the end of June) and would be preceded and somehow justified by an economic collapse.
The interview seemed credible, convincing and scary. Plus, it’s consistent with my own “gut” feeling that “something big” is just around the corner. So, I’m inclined to believe the Lieutenant’s warnings.
Nevertheless, those warnings don’t make good sense to me. The logistics of sending the police to go door-to-door to confiscate all firearms in this country make gun confiscation a very difficult problem. Some estimate that 100 million private Americans may hold over 300 million firearms.
According to Wikipedia, as of A.D. 2010, there were about 256 police officers (at the local, state and federal levels altogether) for ever 100,000 Americans. That’s roughly one police officer for every 400 Americans or one police officer for every 130 armed Americans. If only 5 out of each 130 armed Americans shoot to retain their right to keep and bear arms, what are the odds that a typical cop can visit 400 people and disarm the 130 who are armed without being shot and possibly killed?
How long would it take for one cop to visit 400 Americans, identify the 130 who are armed, and then disarm them? I don’t see how the average cop could visit more than 4 Americans per hour. That implies that the average cop would spend 100 hours–two and a half weeks–to identify and disarm his “fair share” of 130 armed Americans.
That’s doable, but what if the cops went out as partners, or in teams of 5 or 10? The number of man-hours required to find and disarm each of the 130 armed Americans would increase in proportion to the size of the “confiscation teams”. If you play with the math a little, you’ll see that it’s possible that a 10-man confiscation team couldn’t find and disarm more than about 1 armed American every hour–that’s 10 man-hours expended to disarm one American. If there are 100 million armed Americans, it might take up to 1 billion man-hours to disarm every armed American. I’ll bet it would take at least 500 million man-hours to disarm the entire nation.
There’s no way that the police–in the aftermath of an economic collapse when people are starving, rioting and looting–could find an extra 500 million or even 100 million extra man-hours to go door-to-door just to confiscate guns.
Even if we brought all soldiers back home, they’d only double the number the police. In the midst of an economic collapse, that wouldn’t be enough to make much difference.
Even if there was enough manpower to confiscate all the guns, it would still take several weeks or months to do so. During that delay, everyone who had guns would be burying their firearms in the pasture or hiding them behind the walls or some such. If it were possible for the police/military to visit every American within one month, I still doubt that they could find and confiscate more than half the nation’s firearms–if that.
My point is that door-to-door gun confiscation doesn’t seem mathematically probable. The government might declare all guns illegal, demand that all guns be surrendered, and order the police to shoot anyone on sight who had or was even suspected of having a firearm. But door-to-door confiscation does not make sense to me.
So. Here I have an interview that sounds credible and is consistent with my “feeling” that “something big” may in the next couple of months–and yet the interview’s primary assertion (that we’re on the verge of door-to-door gun confiscation) does not make sense to me.
So, what do you think? Is the information in the following interview credible? Persuasive? Or improbable? Does the Lieutenant in this interview provide good information? Or good disinformation?