RSS

John Williams Predicts Hyper-inflation in A.D. 2014

10 Mar

Unlikely hero?  John Williams @ shadowstats.com [courtesy Google Images]

Unlikely hero? John Williams @ shadowstats.com
[courtesy Google Images]

I don’t have many heroes.  You could count all of the heroes of my life on one hand.  In fact, you could count all of my current heroes on one finger.  That one hero is John Williams at Shadowstats.com.

Somewhere between ten and twenty years ago, Williams realized that the government was repeatedly and persistently changing the mathematical formulae it used to calculate “official” economic indicators like inflation, unemployment and national debt.

For example, if inflation was once calculated on the basis of A + B = 2% (inflation rate) and inflation rose to levels (say, 9%) likely to diminish public confidence in the economy, then the government would simply change the formula (A + B) into a new-and-improved formula of A + B – 7%.  Now, with the new formula, even though the real inflation rate was 9%, the “official” inflation rate would still be 2%—and the people would cheer and say “Hooray for government economists!  Let’s reelect the incumbent politicians!

These formula changes were initially justified by politicians as a means to maintain the economic sin qua non:  public confidence in both the economy and incumbent politicians.  But, despite the original justification, these formula changes were designed to deceive the American people into believing that the US economy was stronger than was really the case.

More than anyone else, Mr. Williams has made it possible for Americans to see those deceptions and begin to hold politicians accountable.

Recognizing that the government was constantly cooking the books by changing the formulae used to calculate economic indicators, John Williams had the simple genius and fortitude to start calculating US economic statistics with the same formulae as were used back about A.D. 1990.  The result was a more accurate description of what is really happening to our economy.  When we strip away the confidence-building deceptions that have been added into the formulae used to calculate the “official” economic indicators, we see that the US economy is, in fact, in a long-term, and persistent state of decline.

It’s true that government’s ability to maintain false confidence in our economy has allowed our economy to avoid a serious decline over the past several decades.  It’s also true that government’s economic deceptions can’t be continued indefinitely and, when they finally fail to fool the people, the economy will suffer a very painful “correction”.

About seven years ago, John Williams research caused me to realize the true, unpayable magnitude of the National Debt.  That realization is the cornerstone for whatever else I know or suspect about economics.

So far as I know, 99% of the American people have no idea who John Williams is.  But if and when any honest history books are written, I believe they’ll recognize that by simply telling the truth, John Williams has had a more powerful effect on the national economy than Ben Bernanke.

I’m grateful to Mr. Williams for his contributions to truth in general, and my own understanding in particular.  He is my one true contemporary hero.

•  Last December, Mr. Williams commented on the possibility of hyperinflation for A.D. 2014:

“Again, at this onset to the New Year, the hyperinflation timing remains in place for 2014. By its nature, a currency panic-the likely proximal trigger of the hyperinflation event—is difficult to time.

“With all the underlying fundamentals for the collapse of the U.S. dollar having been in place for some time, the potential for an imminent break in the system also has been and remains in place.

“In the wake of the Panic of 2008, the hyperinflation timing reflects the period in which many of the economic- and systemic-related crises of 2008 likely will intensify or resurface, in a confluence of market-roiling circumstances.

“Extraordinary financial intervention by the federal government and Federal Reserve in 2008 saved the U.S. banking system from collapse, but those actions did little more than to push mortal problems for the economy and financial system a couple of years down the road. Those actions also had inflationary consequences, and they limited the flexibility of federal-government and Federal Reserve options in addressing future crises, accelerating the approach of a day of reckoning for the U.S. dollar into the near future. The U.S. currency has been set up for its ultimate demise, in debilitating inflation.

 “Little has changed in the basic outlook for the 2014 onset of the Great Collapse, a hyperinflationary great depression. Extraordinary fiscal imbalances by 2004 had set the United States on course for a hyperinflation before the end of this decade.”

 

These “fiscal imbalances” are a “fundamental” in the sense that the past cannot be changed.  If we really, really, really played the fiscal fool before A.D. 2004, we may be able to postpone the consequences of that foolishness for a decade or so—but, inevitably, fiscal foolishness isn’t like a government  scandal that can be forgotten in the wake of the next government scandal.

I.e., an unpayable National Debt can’t be papered over like a scandal in Benghazi.  Fiscal foolishness has a tangible reality that can’t be ignored, forgotten or simply dismissed.

Why?  Because, in a debt-based monetary system, one man’s debt is another man’s asset.  Therefore, we can’t ignore, forget or dismiss the existing paper debt without also destroying an equal amount of paper wealth needed as the “capital” used to run the economic system.  Wiping out existing debt may seem to most to be cause for celebration.  But wiping out existing paper wealth could cause catastrophe and trigger the public’s rage against government.

In truth, we’ve been living on an illusion that can be traced back at least as far as A.D. 1971—when Nixon ended the last vestige of the “gold standard’s” relationship to the fiat dollar.  Sooner or later, that truth will out because fiscal foolishness is not merely a temporary scandal—it’s a mathematical phenomenon that has mathematical consequences as fixed and certain as the force of gravity.

The “fundamentals” for eschewing the fiat dollar and purchasing physical gold aren’t merely about the present or even the future.  Those fundamentals are also about the past.  Insofar as our government has played the fool in the past, our government must, sooner or later, pay the fool’s price in the futurebankruptcy.  Insofar as we wipe out the existing debt, we also wipe out existing paper wealth, and the nation slides deeper into depression.

Whether the economy “recovers” today or next year is almost irrelevant.  Government has run up a huge national debt in the past that must either be paid or defaulted on.  It can’t be paid.  But if the government defaults on the debt, that would shatter confidence and perceived value in the fiat dollar.

The government’s predicament is that no amount of economic genius, market manipulation or new formulae to calculate economic indicators can put us back on the road to recovery unless we first and foremost repay our existing debts.  That debt can’t be forgotten or ignored because millions of Americans are holding that debt as assets.  They will scream if the debt is cancelled because their correlative paper assets will also be cancelled.

No economic “recovery” program that ignores the national debt can succeed for long.  Sooner or later we have to face the National Debt and pay it or default on it.

Both solutions have adverse consequences.  We can only pay the debt by accepting higher taxes and fewer services from government.  Under that “austerity,” we’ll have less money to spend and our standard of living must decline.  We would probably suffer another Great Depression.

On the other hand, if we openly default on the national debt, trillions of dollars in paper assets will be wiped out, the US dollar will probably fail, and we’ll probably be plunged into an another Great Depression.

There’s no painless escape from the National Debt.  We’ve had our 40-years of party.  It was grand.  But now, it’s time to pay the piper.  We lived like a bunch of merry drunks for a couple of decades, but now we must face a five or ten year hangover.

Until the national debt is resolved, there’ll be no economic recovery.

John Williams concluded:

“The Panic of 2008, and related extreme actions taken by the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government to prevent the collapse of the financial system, brought in the hyperinflation timing to 2014, which now is at hand.

“A looming crisis in the U.S. dollar—a panicked sell-off in the U.S. currency in the months ahead—remains the likely proximal trigger for the early stages of the hyperinflation.  A sharp decline in the exchange-rate value of the dollar would spike dollar-denominated commodity prices, such as oil, and related inflation.

“The unfolding circumstance will encompass a complete loss U.S. dollar purchasing power; extreme disruption in the normal stream of U.S. commercial and economic activity; a collapse in the U.S. financial system; and a likely realignment of the U.S. political environment.”

 

John Williams is my hero—but he’s not my prophet.  I don’t claim that Mr. Williams’ prediction for A.D. 2014 is necessary correct.  But there’s no part of his prediction that’s impossible.

Williams is predicting a sudden, sharp decline characterized by hyper-inflation.  I’m more inclined to expect an accelerated rate of inflation, but still a fairly gradual rate of economic decline.

If either of us is right, we’re saying that this year—A.D. 2014—will mark the overt beginning of a serious devaluation of the dollar and similar decline in the US economy.

If you agree, buckle up.

 

Tags: , ,

13 responses to “John Williams Predicts Hyper-inflation in A.D. 2014

  1. Bobby Goodwin

    March 10, 2014 at 1:47 PM

    Thanks for emailing me. My reply HERE

    On Mon, Mar 10, 2014 at 10:50 AM, Adask’s law

     
    • J.M.

      March 10, 2014 at 4:17 PM

      To: Bobby Goodwin,
      @ Thanks for emailing me. My reply HERE
      @ On Mon, Mar 10, 2014 at 10:50 AM, Adask’s law

      Why do you keep posting this same identical message ? You posted the SAME THING on a prior thread. What does, HERE, mean? Nosy ain’t ? But, who are you communicating with, or trying too?

       
  2. Toland

    March 10, 2014 at 6:30 PM

    Gotta give this John Williams guy credit. He’s a straight shooter who puts it on the line with a definite prediction for the near future.

    On the other hand we have the slick BS artists who stuff so many weasel words into their sales pitch that they never actually commit themselves to anything. All the risk is assumed by the trusting audience.

    Thanks for the article.

     
  3. henry

    March 11, 2014 at 11:36 AM

    The theory behind the federal reserve/US Gov double speak is to “manage” the economy. The economy is held up by hypnosis. If they say that we are in a recession/depression then people will stop spending and we will have one. If they say that inflation is at 9% then the cost of living adjustments will be increased by 9%. But, if they say there is 2% inflation then their payments will be reduced, in real terms, by 7%. The population, in general, does not see the scam. American standard of living is decreasing relative to the rest of the world but it is hard to detect when there is a new iPhone coming out in a few months. But, of course, it all ends in tears. The USS Titanic is sinking but those steering don’t have their feet wet while many people are under water.

    The debt and unfunded liabilities cannot be paid. I expect that the outcome is that Social Security/medicare. medicaid, ObamaCare, food stamps, WIC, and all other welfare payments will be reduced in real terms as the inflation kicks in. After the first round of inflation, the foreign debts will be reduce in real terms. Then the Federal Reserve will be nationalized, The US note will replace the Federal Reserve Note. These notes will not pay interest. The debts owned to the Federal Reserve will be eliminated. I don’t see this happening without a fight by the bansters and many Americans will die.

    The question is how does one survive the disaster. If you had $50,000 today, how would profit from, or not be harmed by, the planned implosion of the US dollar.

     
  4. EarlatOregon

    March 11, 2014 at 12:29 PM

    Define HyperInflation

     
    • Adask

      March 11, 2014 at 1:17 PM

      I can’t define “hyper-inflation”. So far as I know there is no absolute definition that’s universally accepted–other than “a lot”. I know that some economists say over 50% per year. I’d be inclined to view any rate of inflation that exceeds 25% as “hyper”.

      I suspect that “hyper-inflation” really means is:

      1) any rising rate of inflation that the government and/or Federal Reserve is unable to control;

      2) A significant loss of confidence in the fiat currency by the general public.

      I think the two meanings I’ve proposed are actually synonymous. I think that, in combination, a single definition of “hyper-inflation” is “A rising rate of inflation caused by a loss of public confidence in the fiat currency that the government and/or Federal Reserve is unable to control.”

      How’s that?

      In the end, my definition of hyper-inflation is not based on a particular number so much as any rising rate of inflation (caused by the public rather than the government) that the government is unable to resist or control.

      We’ve had persistent inflation for most of my lifetime at around 2% per year. This “inflation” has been caused and controlled by government rather than the people and/or the free markets. Thus, we might define “inflation” as a reduction in the purchasing power of the fiat dollar that’s been intentionally caused but also controlled and limited by the federal government.

      We might therefore define “hyper-inflation” as not a specific rate of inflation (like 25% or 50%) but any rate of inflation that was 1) caused by the people’s loss of confidence in the fiat dollar; and 2) beyond the control of the federal government and/or federal reserve.

      How’s that?

       
      • EarlatOregon

        March 11, 2014 at 1:52 PM

        Surely there is a Definition.

        wonder what John Williams
        uses as a Definition?

         
      • henry

        March 11, 2014 at 1:58 PM

        The Fed controls inflation. The Fed creates inflation. If you have a basket of goods balanced against a basket of currency and then double the amount of currency, the goods in the basket would double in price. Quantitative Easing is doubling the amount of currency. When the dollar loses its world reserve status, all those dollars sitting in foreign banks that facilitate the oil trade will come back to America. It will look like the Fed can’t control it but they set the pins up and, I believe, is about to start knocking them down.

         
      • J.M.

        March 11, 2014 at 2:14 PM

        @ How’s that?

        That’s good enough for me but some people can never be satisfied. Don’t mean to be out of line or order, but if someone wants to comment on tonight’s upcoming Radio Program. which thread should be used to do so? There was no thread for the program last week, that I know of.

        P..S. Since I am digressing, I believe The Messiah, when he was on earth, was more intelligent & wiser than King Solomon was in his heyday. But, I also believe there was a “time” the Messiah was, in his heart, sadder, than his intelligence level/degree. I made a comment on another thread about your intelligence that could have been taken to mean I was insulting you. I hope what I have said, about the Messiah, will try to explain what I really meant

         
    • J.M.

      March 12, 2014 at 10:12 PM

      Define HyperInflation

      It’s not higher than the highest level of all levels but it’s higher than a very high level. We have to keep in mind Superhyper & Super Duper hyper inflation & it just goes on. Maybe it will help to know you can substitute degrees for levels but it’s easier to understand when we know what it’s not rather than try to know what it is. Please don’t misunderstand. There is away to define it by first knowing what it’s not. When we know what it’s not then we can figure out what it is. Hope this helps.

       
  5. J.M.

    March 12, 2014 at 3:40 AM

    @ >I hope what I have said, about the Messiah, will try to explain what I really meant.

    I believe for a certain period of time, he, the Messiah, was sadder than he was wiser.knowing what was about to happen to him. & he did not have to go through it, he just voluntarily did.

     

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s