According to the “About” comments associated with the following YouTube video,
“Ukraine [government] has released video it says is evidence a Russian Buk missile system was smuggled into rebel-controlled eastern Ukraine just before Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 was shot down.
“Counterintelligence chief at Ukraine’s national security service, Vitaly Nayda, says a Buk-M1, also known as the SA-11, missile system was moved into pro-Moscow territory in Ukraine around 1 a.m. on Thursday. ‘We have compelling evidence that this terrorist act was committed with the help of the Russian Federation. We know clearly that the crew of this system were Russian citizens,’ he told a news conference.
“Reuters reports: ‘Calling on Russia to give Ukraine the names and surnames of the crew so that Kiev could question them, he said the three systems had now been moved back to Russia, showing journalists pictures of the missile systems in various locations.’
“‘We know about the three people who came together with these systems from the territory of Russia’, Nayda told a news conference.”
Here’s that video (00:01:07)
Note that in the video, we have an image of what may be a Buk launcher riding on a truck without any canvas or tarp to conceal the launcher. You can see two of the missiles on top. In the animated drawings in the video, that launcher is covered with a tarp so as to be concealed. Even if a tarp was present, do you think that a truck openly carrying a missile launcher down a major roadway is evidence of “smuggling”?
Regardless of whether the Buk launcher was concealed by a tarp or not, the truck was driving down a significant road that presumably comes from a border crossing into Russia.
I might be able to believe that an all-terrain Buk missile launcher secretly crossed from Russia into Ukraine at some remote point in the wilderness along the Russia/Ukraine border. I cannot believe that, in the midst of a possible war with Russia, that Ukrainian border crossings (at least in territory controlled by the Ukrainian government) are so poorly manned that they’d allow a semi-tractor-trailer from Russia enter Ukraine without inspection. It’s hard to believe that Ukrainian border guards would overlook the entry of a Russian Buk missile launcher driving down road from Russia.
Of course, if this border crossing took place in an area controlled by Ukrainian rebels, it would’ve been possible for a Buk missile launcher to enter Ukraine without incident.
But Mish Shedlock (“Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis”) posted an article entitled “Video of Rebel Buk Launchers Headed Back to Russia?” That article reports an analysis of the previous Ukraine video. That analysis claims that,
“going by the billboard and other features of the scenery [in the video], Russian bloggers and news sources claim to have identified the road in the video as having been taken in or near the town of Krasnoarmeisk (“Krasnoarmiysk” in Ukrainian), which has been under Kiev’s control since May.”
There’s no way that the Russians would’ve dared to try to smuggle–let alone openly drive–a Buk missile launcher into territory held by the Ukraine government and then launch a Buk missile from Ukraine-controlled territory. Not in May, not last Wednesday, not today.
If the Russian bloggers are correct in identifying the place where the Buk launcher was videoed as being within Ukraine-controlled territory, then the Ukraine intelligence officer is mistaken or lying.
If the Russian bloggers are correct in identifying the time (May) when the Buk launcher was videoed, we’re left to wonder why did that video surface only now–two months after the Buk launcher entered Ukraine? It’s possible that whoever took the video didn’t report it until now. But it’s also possible that the Ukraine government has known since May that the rebels held a Buk launcher in Ukraine but made no attempt to find or destroy that launcher. If it turns out that the Buk launcher was videoed in May, that video’s relevance to last Thursday’s downing of Flight MH 17 would be questionable. Again, I’m left to wonder if the the Ukrainian intelligence officer is mistaken or lying.
It’s extremely unlikely that an intelligence chief would speak publicly but mistakenly about an item of intelligence as critical as a video of a Russian Buk missile launcher being “smuggles” into Ukraine. If it turns out that the Buk launcher was videoed at a place under control of the Ukraine government, the probability that Russia drove that launcher on a truck into Ukraine will be about zero. Conversely, the probability that the Ukraine intelligence chief is lying will be close to 100%.
The place where the video was recorded will be critical to determining who is probably lying and therefore who is probably responsible for destroying Flight MH 17.
I tend to suspect the Ukrainians. But, can we believe the “Russian bloggers” who claim the place of the video was in territory controlled by the Ukraine government. Or is their claim a lie?
I don’t know know who’s lying.
But the place where the video was reportedly recorded can’t be concealed and will soon be absolutely confirmed or denied. No one can rip out all the trees, billboards and homes at the point where the video was taken–unless they bomb that place. But even if they bombed the place, the resulting crater would remain in rebel-held or government-held territory and we’d still know for sure where the video was recorded.
I find it hard to believe that the “Russian bloggers” would intentionally lie about the place where the video was taken. I’m not claiming that such bloggers are absolutely moral, reliable and trustworthy. I’m saying that they’d have to know that the place they’ve identified would instantly be sought out by credible journalists and investigators and quickly confirmed or denied as being within Ukraine-government-held territory. There’s not much point to falsifying a physical location if you know that location will be quickly exposed as a lie.
Of course, that same principle should apply to the Ukraine intelligence chief who claimed that the place of the video was in rebel-held territory. But I suspect that the Ukraine intelligence chief was more likely to lie about the video as an act of desperation or stupidity.
Right now, we can’t know for sure who is the most-likely liar: the Ukraine intelligence chief or the “Russian bloggers” (or, even both). But we’ll find out when the place in the video is verified or refuted. When we do, that knowledge will help to prove who is the most likely culprit: government of Russia or government of Ukraine.
I don’t know who’s responsible for firing that purported Buk missile. In fact, I don’t even know that a Buk missile was fired. But my gut (which is not infallible) tells me that the missile was fired by the Ukraine government. More, my gut tells me that the U.S. gov-co is complicit in that attack. Most probable motive? To subject Russia and Vladimir Putin to responsibility for a false flag attack on Flight MH 17–and, by doing so, slow or stop the growing alliance between Russia from Europe.
(One of the most fascinating aspects of the Flight MH 17 story is that the real truth may be uncovered, pieced together, and published by individuals rather than government spokesmen and mainstream media journalists.)