Pento is too good. Reminds me of Robert De NIro in the movie Raging Bull.
He knows his stuff. He’s expecting a big step downward in the economy circa March.
Michael might be right, but I don’t regard Puerto Rico’s plight as big news.
According to Wikipedia, Puerto Rico is over $70 billion in debt. $70 billion’s not chicken feed. But, on the other hand, under Quantitative Easing 3 (QE3), the Federal Reserve was handing out $80 billion per month to stimulate the U.S. economy. Surely, the Fed could cough up enough to solve P.R.s debt problem—right?
I doubt that Puerto Rico’s $70 billion debt is a domino that’s big enough to start a chain reaction that will, eventually, topple the US economy. If I’m wrong, why doesn’t the Fed simply lend Puerto Rico, say, $40 billion, to placate some of its creditors and at least kick the can down the road for another year or two? We could call it “QE4”—a one lump loan of $40 billion to save Puerto Rico.
However, even if Puerto Rico’s debt problem is more noise than news, Puerto Rico’s tactics for dealing with that problem might be illuminating.
Why? Because there are only so many moves on the board. I.e., there are only a limited number of tactics that any insolvent government can use to deal with its excess debt.
By understanding Puerto Rico’s tactics for dealing with its unpayable debts, we can gain a pretty good idea of the tactics available to any other overly-indebted nation (including the U.S.) when it’s finally forced to default.
In the first week of A.D. 2016, Salon magazine published an article entitled “A year of war: 10 destructive armed conflicts the U.S. fueled in 2015”. According to Salon,
“2015 was marked by violence and war. The most prevalent story in the U.S. media throughout the year was ISIS. The Paris attacks, mass shootings, police brutality, terrorism, the Charleston massacre and the refugee crisis were also among the top 10 stories of the year.”
That article illustrated an important point: As A.D. 2015 ended, the mainstream media and the American people were focused on questions of war. Would Syria erupt in full-scale war? Would Russia declare war on Turkey? Saudi Arabia with Iran? Shiites with Sunnis? ISIS sneaking backpack nukes into the US? Israel with . . . well, Israel could be fighting with anyone. What about the US goading China or Russia into WWIII?
So far as I know, Bill Holter is not a prophet. He could be wrong. He might be over-reacting.
But he’s no idiot, he’s well-informed and he’s been studying markets for years.
His opinion deserves your consideration.
I’m posting this video at about 11:55 PM (CST) on Sunday night. If the Dow continues its decline tomorrow (Monday) and/or Tuesday, and if the Dow falls by at least another 400 points by next Friday (January 22nd), it’ll be evidence that Holter may be roughly correct in claiming that the “Collapse Is [already] Here”.
More, Holter’s warning is based on the idea that world markets are falling–not just those in the US. Therefore, we’ll not only be watching the Dow this week, we’ll also be watching the Chinese and European markets. If markets, globally, continue to fall this week, that’ll support Holter’s warning of a major, global, economic collapse.
On the other hand, if The Powers That Be can push the Dow (and foreign markets) upward Monday, Tuesday and over next week, then that would be evidence that Holter’s prediction is premature. In that case, the “collapse” would still be coming, but it might be several weeks, months or even years before the economy really hits the fan.
Note that Holter is not predicting an instantaneous “collapse” wherein the whole economy stops running as if somebody hit the “off” switch. Holter is saying that the collapse “process” has begun in the sense that the first snowballs in what will later become an avalanche are starting to roll down hill. The collapse has started in a way that can’t be reversed, but it’ll probably be something like a slow-motion movie of an avalanche. It could be months or years before the “avalanche” starts moving at full speed and then hits bottom.
Even if Holter’s warning is premature, I give him credit for daring to make this prediction right now. He’s taking a chance on appearing to be a darn fool. He could be wrong, but he’s still seen something that convinces him that the onset of the collapse has already happened or, at least, is close.
We are not yet in a state of panic. However, the first two weeks of A.D. 2016 have resulted in global market declines. If we get a third bad week (this week) and even a fourth bad week (next week), we could see the onset of a global panic as early as the 1st of February..
Are flame throwers protected by the 2nd Amendment?
You can see where this is going. There’s going to be a market for fighter drones that can automatically defend our homes.