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Category Archives: Debt

What Can’t Be Paid, Won’t Be Paid


National Debt Creditors About to Lose their Assets [courtesy Google Image]

National Debt Creditors About to Lose their Assets
[courtesy Google Image]

I’ve argued for five years that the U.S. National Debt is too great to ever be repaid in full, or even by half.  My personal guesstimate is that at least 80%–and probably 90%–of the National Debt will inevitably be repudiated.  That repudiation will take the form of hyperinflation, express repudiation (“Sorry, boys–but we’re too broke to pay that debt.”), or perhaps even WWIII (a good war could wipe out virtually all memory and enforce-ability of the National Debt.).

Here’s a graphic that illustrates my argument.  If you take a few minutes to view the graphic, you’ll see the size of the U.S. National Debt is:

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1. Larger than the 500 largest public companies in America;

2. Larger than all assets managed by the world’s top seven money managers;

3.  25X larger than all global oil exports in 2015;

4. 155x larger than all gold mined globally in a year; and, my personal favorite:

5. Larger than all of the world’s physical currency, gold, silver, and bitcoin combined.
In other words, there’s not enough actual money and currency in the world to repay the U.S. National Debt.
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The Only Question


$20 TRILLION National Debt! [courtesy Google Images]

$20 TRILLION National Debt!
[courtesy Google Images]

On September 30th, A.D. 2016, the U.S. government closed out the 2016 fiscal year with an “official” National Debt of $19,573,444,713,936.79.

Makes me laugh.

Government can calculate the U.S. National Debt to the penny. How responsible!

And yet, government has no idea what happened to $6.5 trillion that was given to the Pentagon and subsequently disappeared.

In any case, the National Debt grew by $1,422,827,047,452.46 ($1.4 trillion) in fiscal 2016. That averaged out to over $100 billion in deficit spending per month.

That annual deficit spending increase has been a de facto $12,000 subsidy for every American household.

The fiscal 2016 deficit spending (debt) amounts to roughly 7.5% of the entire US economy. Without that 7.5% in debt-based “stimulation,” where do you suppose the economy would be right now?

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Promises, Promises


[courtesy Google Images]

[courtesy Google Images]

The Chicago Tribune recently published “A federal solution to Chicago’s public pension mess”. According to that article, Chicago’s pension debts promised to retired government employees, can’t be paid based on current funding. Therefore, the city’s government will raise taxes, cut benefits and force Chicagoans into an era of “austerity” similar to that which has been inflicted on the people of bankrupt Greece.

But even after an era of austerity, the pension debt still can’t and won’t be paid in full.

Chicago is a microcosm of the US and world economies. Pension plans throughout the U.S. and global economies are going to fail. Many retirees are heading for poverty.

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I’m not against unions, but I have no sympathy for the Chicago teachers and police officers’ unions. It may seem sad that they’re about retire without fat pensions, but they’re not innocent victims. They bribed crooked politicians to rob future generations (children, grandchildren, even the unborn) to provide pensions to government employees that were not only “overly-generous” but unearned.
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The “DEBT-based” Monetary System is a “RISK-based” Monetary System


Debt = Risk [courtesy Google Images]

Debt = Risk
[courtesy Google Images]

FORBES magazine recently published an article entitled “The Fed’s Monetary Monkeying Is Ruining Your Retirement And The Economy”. As often happens, excerpts from that article got me thinking. For example:

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• “Is there any way that NIRP (“Negative Interest Rate Policy”) make sense?

“ Maybe.

Central banks think NIRP will get people to take more risk.”

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What’s the Fed mean when it encourages people to take more risk? Drive without fastening their seat belts? Cancel their home owner’s insurance policy?

No. The Fed’s encouragement to take more risk is like telling a man to play Russian Roulette. However, in the context of this analogy, each “bullet” is an item of significant debt.

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The Gold Imperative


Got Gold? [courtesy Google Images]

Got Gold?
[courtesy Google Images]

Gold-Eagle.com published an article entitled “The Inflation Imperative” which stated in part that:

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“The western welfare states (US, UK, EU etc.) have borrowed more digital currency than can be repaid at current values. The choices are:

“1. Massive inflation: a bad choice.

“2. Default: an even worse choice.”

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In fact, these two choices could be more clearly expressed as:

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1. Covert debt default by means of massive inflation: a bad choice

2. Overt debt default: an even worse choice.

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When the Debt Hits the Fan


[courtesy Google Images]

[courtesy Google Images]

Business Insider published an article entitled “Americans have $12.29 trillion of debt”. That article reported:

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“Americans are still adding debt.

Household debt—which includes things as varied as mortgages and credit cards—increased to $12.29 trillion in the second quarter of 2016, an increase of $35 billion, or 0.3%, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit.

“The biggest increases came from auto debt and credit-card debt, which ticked up by $32 billion and $17 billion.

Mortgages, the largest section of household debt, actually decreased in the second quarter, according to the New York Fed. The decrease in mortgage debt seems to be driven by more people paying down their balances, as new mortgage debt continued to tick up.

Student-loan debt decreased by $2 billion, to $1.259 trillion . . . .”

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According to Bloomberg, total U.S. corporate debt is about $30 trillion. The “official” U.S. national debt is about $20 trillion. Added together, that means the total U.S. household, corporate and government debt is at least $62 trillion.

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Promises, Promises


What Can't Be Paid, Won't be Paid [courtesy Google Images]

What Can’t Be Paid,
Won’t be Paid
[courtesy Google Images]

Last month (July), AFP published an article entitled “Japan PM unveils $266 bn stimulus plan to boost economy”. According to that article,

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Japan’s government and central bank have come under increasing pressure to do more for the economy.

“Therefore, [in July] Japan’s government announced a stimulus package worth more than 28 trillion yen ($266 billion) in its latest attempt to fire up the lukewarm economy . . . .”

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By itself, $266 billion in government stimulus doesn’t strike me as significant. Back around 2008-2009, the U.S. government injected $800 billion into the U.S. economy under QE1. Later, under QE3, the government injected $80 billion per month (almost $1 trillion per year) into the economy. These injections may have postponed a U.S. economic depression, but they didn’t generate much of an economic recovery.

Given that Japan is the world’s third largest economy, I don’t expect $266 billion (just one-third of the $800 billion injected during the U.S. QE1) to have much more effect on Japan’s economy than QE1 had on the U.S. economy.

This implies that Prime Minister Abe’s proposed “stimulus package” is more of a gesture to “do something” rather than a real economic remedy for the stagnating Japanese economy.

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