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Category Archives: Economy

An Historic “Hockey-Stick” Moment


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The original trend (green line) is fairly flat.  Something happens around A.D. 1971 to cause the second trend line (blue) to accelerate upwards.  That change in trend “velocity” marks the “Hockey-Stick Moment” where something unexpected and powerful suddenly took place.  In this example, President Nixon severed gold’s relationship to the dollar.

GATA love it

According to the “About” page at Gold Anti-Trust Action committee’s website (www.gata.org),

 

The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee [GATA] was organized in the fall of 1998 to expose, oppose, and litigate against collusion to control the price and supply of gold and related financial instruments. The committee arose from essays by Bill Murphy, a financial commentator on the Internet (LeMetropoleCafe.com), and by Chris Powell, a newspaper editor in Connecticut.

 

Imagine that! GATA—and all that flows from it—started from just couple of “essays”.

As you’ll read, maybe the pen really is mightier than the sword.

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Debt-Based Monetary System Demands Ever More Debt—Part IV—“Why”?


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BUT WHYYYYY?!

In the first three “Parts” of this article (#1 More Debt, #2 Ponzi Schemes, & #3 Fractional Reserve Banking), I explored and advanced an hypothesis concerning America’s National Debt. I argued that our National Debt isn’t growing due to accident or governmental incompetence. Instead, I argued that that our seemingly uncontrollable National Debt (it nearly doubled under the Obama administration) grows out of a mathematical necessity that’s somehow caused by our Debt-Based Monetary System (DBMS).

In essence, I believe that our DBMS forces our National Debt to grow as a necessity and requirement. The the DBMS will die if it’s not constantly fed an growing stream of debt. If the DBMS dies, it will kill our debt-based economy.

More, I suspect that the debt must not only grow, but must grow “geometrically” or, at least, it must grow faster than the economy. If that’s true, it’s the the kiss of death for the DBMS and our debt-based economy.

Our DBMS (Debt-Based Monetary System) doesn’t simply make more debt possible, it makes more debt necessary. If we fail or refuse to go deeper into debt, our DBMS and economy will collapse into chaos.

If my hypothesis is roughly correct, it means that any promise by the Republican Party or President Trump to eliminate deficit spending and/or reduce the National Debt from $20 trillion to, say, $19 trillion—is not only false, but potentially dangerous. If they succeed in significantly reducing the National Debt, I believe that reduction could cause our debt-based economy to collapse.

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Debt-Based Monetary System Demands Ever More Debt—Part II—Ponzi Schemes?


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Is our Debt-Based Monetary System a Ponzi Scheme?  [Courtesy Google Images]

Recently, in Part I of this series, I promised that in Part II, I’d explain “why” the survival of our debt-based monetary system (DBMS) depends on the creation of ever more debt. I argued that our massive National Debt is not an accident or evidence of political malfeasance, but rather an intentional and necessary consequence of accepting our debt-based monetary system (DBMS). I argued that our DBMS can’t survive without going ever deeper into debt.

I compared “payments” (which are tangible, real assets like gold or silver coins) to “promises to pay” (which are intangible, paper debt-instruments like paper dollars). I warned that, given the choice between receiving a tangible “payment” and an intangible “promise to pay,” only a fool would take the paper “promises to pay”.

I illustrated my argument about “promises to pay” by reminding readers of how many times they had made or received promises that had failed. My point was that promises are easily made and routinely broken.

So, I suppose it should come as no surprise that my promise to use this week’s article to explain the “why” behind the debt-based monetary scheme will also be broken. I began to write this second article with some background on “Ponzi Schemes” (which is how I and others frequently describe our DBMS).  But, when I looked into “Ponzi Schemes,” I discovered that maybe that’s not the most accurate way to describe our DBMS. I also realized that maybe I should try to discern and describe the nature of our DBMS before I got into the “why”.

Result? Here, in Part II of this series of articles we’re going to explore whether our DBMS is really a “Ponzi Scheme” or if it’s something else. Then, in Part III (coming soon) I’ll present my notions concerning the fundamental “why”.

I promise.

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Debt-Based Monetary System Demands Ever More Debt—Part I


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The National Debt was basically flat from A.D. 1900 through A.D. 1971. In A.D. 1971, President Nixon closed the “gold window” and the dollar became a pure fiat/debt-based currency.  Since A.D. 1971, the National Debt has persistently increased, without regard to which political party controls the government.  I strongly suspect that a debt-based monetary system cannot survive without government creating more debt.  Once the dollar was debt-based, the National Debt had to increase.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) recently released a 55-page report on the “long-term US budget outlook”. The report implied that the US government is on the road to fiscal chaos and possible collapse that could not be sustained beyond A.D. 2047.

I think the CBO is lying about the “long-term” budget outlook. Instead, I think we’ve only got a “short-term” to go before the debt hits the fan.

According to the report, the “official” National Debt ($20 trillion) currently stands at the highest level since shortly after World War II. (The report did not comment on estimates by others that, including unfunded liabilities, the real National Debt may be closer to $100 trillion or even $200 trillion.)  According to the report, if government maintains current policies and economic trends continue, the debt will likely double over the next 30 years, rising to about 150% of GDP.

I see the CBO’s predictions and “warnings” as bunk, bunk, and, uh, bunk.

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Passive Investing Destroys “Price Discovery”


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Courtesy Google Images

 

ZERO HEDGE published an article entitled, “Hedge Fund CIO: “Expect Enormous Losses In The Next Correction As There Is No Price Discovery In Index Investing”. According to that article,

The CIO [Chief Investment Officer] of One River Asset Management spoke on the one topic that is first and foremost on the minds of the active investing community: the unprecedented shift from active to passive management, and what it means for not only the industry, but for markets during the next “normal correction.”

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Posted by on April 21, 2017 in Economy, Investment, Market Panics, Uncategorized

 

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Economics: Science or Séance?


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Janet Yellen calls Federal Reserve meeting to order

Jim Cramer is a former hedge fund manager and best-selling author. He’s the host of CNBC’s Mad Money TV show and a co-founder of TheStreet, Inc.

According to CNBC, with oil prices on the rise, Cramer recently used technician Carolyn Boroden’s charts to try to determine,

[W]hether the uptick in crude oil prices is just a one-off [an aberration or anomaly] or if it’s time to get bullish.”

Note that when it comes to investing in crude oil, Cramer apparently sees just two choices:

1) Stand pat since the rising price is a “one-off” and nothing major is really happening; or,

2) Jump in with both feet since the oil market is really changing to become significantly bullish.

However, there’s a third possibility that Cramer has ignored but others who invest in crude oil should consider: while crude oil’s near-term price is volatile and might go up or down, crude oil’s mid- to long-term price might be falling.

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Silver’s Future


CrystalBall1NEWSMAX reports that in A.D. 2012, America’s largest investment bank (JPMorgan Chase & Co.) held 5 million ounces of silver. Today, JPM holds a staggering 91.5 million ounces of silver! In just 5 years, JPM increased their stockpile 1700%.

In the first three months of A.D. 2017, JPM reportedly purchased 9.4 million ounces of silver. That’s an average purchase of over 3 million ounces per month. JPM clearly believes that silver’s price will rise.

Since A.D. 2000, silver has enjoyed an average annual growth of 10%. Plus, we know that silver can go to $48 per ounce, as it did in 1980 and 2011.”

More, since 2000, silver supplies have been in a deficit every single year. That means the supply of silver has not kept up with the growing demand for over 17 years and is unlikely to do so in the foreseeable future. Diminished supplies coupled with growing demand means higher prices.

Financial expert John Rubino believes that silver could exceed $100 per ounce. According to Rubino, the silver market is so small that if even a relatively modest amount of currency (“a few tens of billions of dollars”) flows into the silver market, the price of silver could start jumping by “$5 or $10 per ounce per day”.

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