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Category Archives: Speculation

Unsustainable


Wall Street Speculation [courtesy Google Images]

Wall Street Speculation
[courtesy Google Images]

One way to understand the difference between “speculators” and “investors” in the markets is to consider a Las Vegas casino. In the casino, there are basically two kinds of people: the gamblers and the casino owners.

The gamblers are constantly betting on the next throw of the dice, the next turn of the cards, the next spin of the roulette wheel. Their focus is on right now and the immediate present.

The casino owners aren’t generally concerned with the next throw of the dice. They’re concerned with “fundamental” truth that, statistically, the casino has a 1.4% statistical advantage in the game of craps. That means that, in the long run, out of every 100,000 throws of the dice, the casino will win 51,400 throws and the gamblers will win 48,600 throws.

Yes, there’ll be the occasional sailor who makes seven consecutive passes and wins a small fortune—but, long-term, the casino’s seemingly small 1.4% advantage is enough to guarantee that, long-term, the casino owners will become fabulously wealthy and—if the gamblers play long enough, they’ll lose every cent they’ve got.

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Posted by on May 1, 2016 in Investment, Speculation

 

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[Digital] Capital Controls


Digital Dollars [courtesy Google Images]

Hi-Speed Digital Dollars
[courtesy Google Images]

According to Wealth Reporter (“Fed Employees Roll Out Bold Idea To Trap The Entire Country’s Wealth”):

 

Capital controls are simply laws that regulate and restrict what you are allowed to do with your money by regulating the flow of cash in and out of a national economy. The laws define such things as where you can invest your cash and how you can allocate your assets.

“A major financial news source just published shocking details about a research report by two employees at the Federal Reserve Bank. The 36-page report applauds the use of ‘capital controls’ in global markets.”

 

Capital controls are intended to regulate or even prevent the flow of currency in or out of a nation’s economy.

So long as the international flow of paper currency is controllable, central banks (like the Federal Reserve) have two mechanisms for controlling their nation’s economy:

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Barnhardt Capital Management Closes


Then Senator Jon Corzine (D-NJ)

Image via Wikipedia

On November 17th, A.D. 2011, Ann Barnhardt–the president of Barnhardt Capital Management–wrote a letter announcing her decision to close her investment company and explained her reasons for doing so.

She’s closing in reaction to the recent collapse of MF Global–which she attributes to the criminal acts of  MFG president Jon Corzine and the increasingly corrupt nation of American markets.

As you may know, Jon Corzine is: a former governor of New Jersey–one of our nation’s most honest and ethical states; a former member of the U.S. Senate–one of nation’s most honest and ethical institutions; a former CEO of Goldman Sachs–another or our nation’s most honest and ethical institutions; and a member of the Democratic Party–one of the nation’s two most honest and ethical political parties.

Mr. Cozine’s seemingly honest and apparently trustworthy visage appears at right.  He’s even wearing an American flag lapel pin.   (As an aside, you should note that if and when the Antichrist comes, he will not appear as a scowling, antisocial version of Flash Gordon’s Emperor Ming.  Instead, the Antichrist will be highly popular, “likable as Hell,” and probably smiling almost incessantly.  The Antichrist will, in short, emulate Mr. Conzine’s affable appearance–at least, initially.)

Miss Barnhardt’s letter’s candor is astonishing.  If her reasons are correct, the recent collapse of MF Global in the commodities exchange will quite probably trigger an economic event similar to the global recession which followed the collapse of Lehman Brothers in A.D. 2008.

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Posted by on November 21, 2011 in Economy, Government as Gangsters, Speculation, Values

 

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Hold Your Gold


Gold Key, weighing one kilogram is used to acc...

Image via Wikipedia

In July and August, we saw the price of gold soar from $1,500 to over $1,900 (Yay!).

In the month since September 5th, we’ve seen the price of gold plummet from $1,900 to $1,640 (Booo!).

The $400 rise in the price of gold was exhilarating.

The $260 fall was scary.

But even scarier than a $260 fall in the price of gold is the fact that in the past month or so, we’ve also seen the prices of stocks, bonds and crude oil fall.  Conversely, we’ve watched the value of the fiat dollar (as measured on the US Dollar Index) rise.

Falling prices and corresponding increases in the purchasing power of a currency are evidence of deflation.  Persistent deflation is scary because it’s a hallmark of economic depression.

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Posted by on October 10, 2011 in Economy, Gold & Silver Coin, Speculation, US Dollar, Video

 

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Speculation


Traffic lights

I delight in speculation.

Speculation tests my powers of perception, and (hopefully) heightens those powers.

For me, speculation is a process akin to peering into the distance and trying to discern whether a cloud of dust on the horizon is being caused by a bunch of kids playing football, an oxcart or a tank.  It’s a process of “connecting dots” when most people don’t even see the dots.  Speculation is the process of trying to reach correct conclusions based on the least amount of evidence.

Speculation is risky since it’s a kind of intellectual or perceptual gambling.  That gambling excites me—especially when I publicly expose my speculations.  By publicly declaring my speculations, I stick my neck out and risk being ridiculed whenever my speculations turn out to be false. I enjoy the risk because that risk forces me to be much more astute in my speculations.

I don’t like being ridiculed any more than the next guy, so, I generally warn people “not to believe something because you hear it from me”.  I routinely sprinkle my texts and statements with words like “appears,” “what if,” or “hypothesis” to warn readers and listeners that the ideas I’m expressing are unproven, speculative and, while plausible, possibly mistaken.

I’ve been speculating in print or on radio for over 20 years.  If I say so myself, while some of my speculation has been mistaken, most of my speculation has turned out to be roughly correct.

This blog (adask.wordpress.com) is primarily dedicated to speculation.

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Posted by on August 31, 2011 in "Man or Other Animals", God-given, Speculation

 

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